Developing a nomogram model and prognostic analysis of nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients: a population-based study

Background: Nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (NPSCC) is a common histo-logical subtype of nasopharyngeal cancer with a generally poor prognosis. The aim of this study is to identify factors affecting the survival prognosis of NPSCC patients and develop a specialized nomogram model.

Methods: We extracted clinical data of 1235 diagnosed cases of NPSCC from the SEER database using SEER*Stat software. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to explore clinical factors that impact the prognosis of NPSCC patients. Based on significant independent factors, we developed a nomogram to predict the 1, 3, and 5 years overall survival rates. The discriminative and predictive abilities of the nomogram were evaluated using C-index, calibration curve, area under the curve (AUC), and receiver operating characteristic curve. We evaluated the clinical value of the nomogram using decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Results: We performed a cohort analysis on 846 patients with nasopharyngeal cancer in the training cohort. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, race, marital status, primary tumor, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, SJCC stage, primary tumor size, Lung metastasis and brain metastasis as independent prognostic factors for NPSCC patients, which we used to construct the nomogram prediction model. The C-index of the training cohort was 0.737. The ROC curve analysis indicated that the AUC of the OS rate at 1, 3, and 5 years in the training cohort was > 0.75. The calibration curves of the two cohorts showed good consistency between the predicted and observed results. DCA and CIC demonstrated that the nomogram prediction model had good clinical benefits.

Conclusions: The nomogram risk prediction model for NPSCC patient survival prognosis, constructed in this study, has exhibited excellent predictive capability. This model can be employed for swift and precise assessment of individualized survival prognosis. It can offer valuable guidance to clinical physicians in diagnosing and treating NPSCC patients.