Objective: This study sought to determine the impact of the World Health Organization's directly observed treatment strategy (DOTS) compared with that of DOTS-plus on tuberculosis deaths, mainly in the developing world.
Design: Decision analysis with Monte Carlo simulation of a Markov decision tree.
Data sources: People with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis.
Data analysis: Analyses modelled different levels of programme effectiveness of DOTS and DOTS-plus, and high (10%) and intermediate (3%) proportions of primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, while accounting for exogenous reinfection.
Main outcome measure: The cumulative number of tuberculosis deaths per 100 000 population over 10 years.
Results: The model predicted that under DOTS, 276 people would die from tuberculosis (24 multidrug resistant and 252 not multidrug resistant) over 10 years under optimal implementation in an area with 3% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis. Optimal implementation of DOTS-plus would result in four (1.5%) fewer deaths. If implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a decrease of just 5% in the effectiveness of DOTS, 16% more people would die with tuberculosis than under DOTS alone. In an area with 10% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, 10% fewer deaths would occur under optimal DOTS-plus than under optimal DOTS, but 16% more deaths would occur if implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a 5% decrease in the effectiveness of DOTS CONCLUSIONS: Under optimal implementation, fewer tuberculosis deaths would occur under DOTS-plus than under DOTS. If, however, implementation of DOTS-plus were associated with even minimal decreases in the effectiveness of treatment, substantially more patients would die than under DOTS.